A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
